Western Conference First Round Predictions

#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Colorado Avalanche
Season Series: 3-1 San Jose

Colorado is 3-5-2 in their last ten games and San Jose is 8-1-1 and winners of three straight. The Sharks have the always solid Evgeni Nabokov in net while the Avs have career journeyman Craig Anderson.

The Avalanche are an up-and-coming team with a ton of young, skilled players such as Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene. Plus, they also have the veteran presence a team needs in the playoffs in Milan Hejduk. The Sharks on the other hand, seem to have a never-ending supply of talent. They have the perennial top tier guys in Joe Thorton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau. But they also have 20+ goal scorers in Joe Pavelski and Devin Setoguchi. The Sharks have been a playoff disappointment for the past couple of years and they think this year will be different.Will it?
Prediction: San Jose wins the series in 4

#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #7 Nashville Predators
Season Series: 4-2 Chicago

Both teams are 6-3-1 in their last ten games. The Blackhawks have won six out of their last seven, their only loss coming in their most recent game against Red Wings in overtime. Nashville will have Pekka Rinne to man the pipes while Chicago will be sending out the relatively young Antti Niemi over the veteran Cristobal Huet.

The Hawks were many scout's and analyst's pick to win the Cup this year. They have the offensive talent to compete with any club in the league. Led by third year forward Patrick Kane, Chicago has captain Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa all with 24+ goals. Nashville has five forwards with more than 15 goals, but only two exceeding 20 with sophomore Patrick Hornqvist leading the team with 30. Assistant captain Shea Weber (yes, the same Shea Weber who shot the puck through the net in the Olympics) and Ryan Suter are the team's top d-men and are looking to take the Preds past the quarterfinal round for the first time in franchise history. Defense is Nashville's unquestioned strength, but will it be enough to power the Predators past the high-flying Chicago offense? 
Prediction: Chicago wins the series in 5

#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Los Angeles Kings
Season Series: 3-1 Vancouver

Neither team has been playing particularly well lately. The Canucks are 5-4-1 in their last ten and Los Angeles is 4-3-3 over the same span. Neither team's goaltender has been lighting it up either. Roberto Luongo has struggled since the Olympic break and after starting off great at the beginning of the season, Jonathan Quick hasn't won since March 22nd.

Vancouver has the league's Art Ross Trophy winner for most points in the season in the form of Henrik Sedin. He's a crazy-good assist man, notching 83 helpers this season. The Canucks have six forwards with 25+ goals and two who have over 30, with Alexandre Burrows leading the pack with 35. Vancouver has a solid defensive core led by silent killers Christian Ehrhoff and Alexander Edler. The Kings may have them topped though. They have Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty, the team's second leading scorer with 59 points, and they have one of last year's Stanley Cup winners, Rob Scuderi, to round out the D. The King's offense ain't too shabby either. Anze Kopitar and youngster Dustin Brown led the team in goals netting 34 and 24 respectively. They have a talented veteran presence as well with Ryan Smyth, Michal Handzus and another Stanley Cup winner in Justin Williams rounding out the troops. But can that experience and skill be enough for LA to complete the upset? 
Prediction: Los Angeles wins the series in 6

#4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
Season Series: Tied 2-2

Phoenix is 5-3-2 over their last ten games and Detroit is 8-1-1 and winners of three straight. The Red Wings will start rookie netminder Jimmy Howard who won 37 games this year. And the Coyotes will have MVP-candidate Ilya Bryzgalov with his 42 wins, 2.20 GAA and .920 save percentage in goal.

Phoenix was quite possibly the league's biggest surprise. Few expected the Yotes to be where they are, especially amidst all of the rumors of the team relocating to Winnipeg. They don't have the league's most potent offense; their leading scorer Radim Vrbata has only 24 goals. And Phoenix lost one of their best wingers when Scottie Upshall went down with an injury in January. Their defense is nothing to write home about either, but they've managed to get it done. The Wings on the other hand struggled early on in the season and many wondered if they would even make the postseason. But they have completely turned things around, getting hot at the right time and becoming the team no one wanted to face. They're 17-3-2 over their last 22 games and coach Mike Babcock has Detroit playing with a vengeance. The Wings have a very formidable offensive attack with Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen and Tomas Holmstrom; all of whom were in Detroit when the team won the cup in 2008 (and lost in 2009). They have one of the most experienced blue lines in the entire NHL. Captain Nicklas Lindstrom and Brian Rafalski have both won multiple Stanley Cups in their careers and are looking to win it again this year. It's going to be nearly impossible to root against the Coyotes with the way they have exceeded expectations this year. But rooting for a team and picking them to win is a different story.
Prediction: Detroit wins the series in 5

Reid-ing Between the Lines of the McNabb Trade

After all the speculation of whether he would go here or there, to Oakland or to Buffalo, stay in Philadelphia or continue his career in another city, it's all over. Donovan McNabb is a Washington Redskin.

It certainly sounds strange to utter those words. Donovan has basically been my only quarterback. Sure there were the Bobby Hoying days in the late 90s and the injury-riddled seasons that saw players like A.J. Feeley, Koy Detmer and Jeff Garcia man the helm. But since I was old enough to know what intentional grounding was and why teams defer to the second half, Andy Reid has been my team's coach and Donovan McNabb has been it's QB. It's the only thing I've known. And when No. 5 comes out of the away tunnel at Lincoln Financial Field wearing burgundy and gold instead of the midnight green we've all become accustomed to seeing, it's going to be a strange sight indeed.

When all is said and done and all of the McNabb lovers have stopped crying and all of the McNabb haters have stopped rejoicing, the Eagles got a second round pick, 37th overall, in the 2010 draft and a conditional third or fourth round pick in 2011.

This is about what most expected McNabb was worth in the open market; a second rounder and a couple later round picks. So as far as what the Eagles got in return for Donovan, I'm fairly pleased. What I don't understand though, is why Philadelphia would trade him to a division rival.

Andy Reid was quoted as saying how he wanted to make McNabb happy as far who his next team would be. Donovan didn't want to go to Oakland (who could blame him) and he didn't want to go to Buffalo. And the only other contending team who offered the Eagles what they wanted for McNabb was, we can only assume, the Washington Redskins. Does Andy Reid and the rest of the Eagles management not realize that Washington is in the same NFC East that Philadelphia is in and that they play the Eagles twice a year? Who cares where Donovan wants to go if where he goes poses a potential risk to your own team. Reid should have been more concerned about the success of his own team and pleasing its millions of fans instead of its now former QB.

Just look at what Brett Favre did to the Packers when he played them twice in 2009. A 30-23 win in Minnesota and a 38-26 beat down in Green Bay. McNabb is certainly going to be pumped for the games against the Birds and it would not surprise me at all for those two games be his best of the season.

But this is a completely different team for McNabb. He's obviously not with the Eagles anymore, so he may not be as successful (or unsuccessful, depends on which way you look at it) as he once was. He could, according to some (not me), never find a way to win the "big game" when it really mattered. Another quarterback from the past 20 or so years had a reputation for not being able to win the crucial games? A certain Hall of Fame quarterback named John Elway.

Elway was successful as the QB of the Broncos early on in his career. He took his team to three Super Bowls in four years from 1986-89 but didn't win any of them. Some said he would never be able to win the big game. Then in 1995 the Broncos got a new coach, the current head coach of the Washington Redskins, Mike Shanahan. Shanahan and Elway took the Broncos to back-to-back Super Bowls in 1998 and 1999 and won both of them. Elway, like McNabb, had the reputation of choking when his team needed a win in its biggest games. Shanahan turned that reputation around when became the head coach of the Broncos and turned John Elway into a Hall of Famer and one of the most successful quarterbacks of all time.

Now will Shanahan do that with McNabb and the Redskins? No one knows, but what we do know is that McNabb will be ready to play the Eagles come fall. And I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Donovan take the Redskins to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, leaving the Eagles on the outside looking in.

Colin Campbell: A Top-Notch Idiot

Players like Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby get special treatment from the NHL because they're superstars. The refs keep a special eye on them at all times to make sure that no opposing player is intentionally trying to injure them because, after all, they are the face of the league. I have disagreed with giving certain players special treatment for a long time, and I still do. But I do see the reason for trying to protect the NHL's most valuable assets. What doesn't make any sense at all is how the NHL hands out its punishments.

Take a look at these hits...
Matt Cooke hit on Marc Savard

It's a blatant cheap shot elbow to the head of Savard. It was basically the last straw that forced the NHL to implement a new "hits to the head" rule. "A guy like that has to be suspended," Bruins coach Claude Julien said. "That's the way I see it, because it's an elbow to the head from the blind side. That's exactly the examples they show of what we've got to get out of this game. We have a guy who's got a concussion. Our best player. He's going to be out for a while. He was [unconscious] on the ice for a bit. That's unacceptable."

Director of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell's decision: No suspension. "I know Matt Cooke is a repeat offender, he's been suspended twice in the last year," Campbell said. "I can't suspend Matt Cooke for being a repeat offender, I have to find a reason."

So, Campbell isn't suspending Cooke for the hit, but he gives out a two game suspension for this?
Dan Carcillo high stick on David Clarkson

According to Rich Chere, a Devils beat writer for the Star-Ledger, Carcillo verbally apologized to Clarkson right after the incident while the two were still on the ice. Carcillo could even be seen patting Clarkson on the back after he noticed that Clarkson was cut. Clarkson is quoted by Chere as saying that Carcillo shoved him and his stick got a little high, and that he didn't know if Carcillo would be suspended for it. This was, according to the suspension given out by Campbell, an obvious "intent to injure." No, I don't think so.

There's no denying that Dan Carcillo is a repeat offender. He has four career suspensions totaling 12 games. But Campbell said he can't suspend a player for being a repeat offender, right? Well then I would love to know his reason for suspending Carcillo but not Cooke if it's not because he's a repeat offender. Maybe it's because he's missing his front teeth or maybe, and more likely, it's because he's wearing the orange and black.

No Tricks for Kendrick This Time

Kyle Kendrick battled Jamie Moyer for the fifth spot in the rotation during the entire 2010 spring training and came out on the short end of the stick. Moyer basically got the job because this will be about his 50th season in the majors, and he has some valuable experience (and a contract) that Kendrick doesn't have.

But with the recent news that Joe Blanton will be out for three to six weeks with a strained oblique, it looks as if Kendrick is going to be thrust into the starting rotation after all.

He is going to be taking the third spot in the rotation, making his 2010 debut on Thursday in the final game of the series at Washington. Yea, I know. He went from not making the rotation at all, to starting the third game of the season, but don't be alarmed. If Kendrick continues to play how he has played in the spring, Phillies fans have nothing to worry about.

Kendrick's spring training ERA was an astounding 1.66 in 21 2/3 innings pitched, the most innings of any Phillie. He had only five walks in those innings and gave up a measly 14 hits. Although spring training stats rarely translate to the regular season, it was good to see Kendrick pitching well early on. For Kendrick to be pitching this effectively shows that he was determined to make the ball club this season and worked hard in the offseason to accomplish that goal. Considering his 2009 spring training stats--9.20 ERA, 27 hits, in 14 2/3 innings-- Kendrick certainly proved that he deserved a spot on this team, and I'm glad he got it.

Phillies fans should all be excited to see what Kendrick can bring to the team while Blanton is out. And if Kendrick continues to pitch as well in regular season as he did in the spring, the Phils may have another pitching quandary on their hands. But this time, it will be a good dilemma to have.

McNabb Theory

Some have him going to Oakland, some to Carolina, some to the CFL, some to the Vancouver Canucks. There are plenty of rumors surrounding where Donovan McNabb might land or should land. There are also about a million different opinions on McNabb and whether or not the Eagles should trade him. Well, one more couldn't hurt.

When it comes to trading Donovan McNabb, it all depends on where the Eagles are going. Philadelphia has done very little this offseason to improve last year's team, and they certainly haven't improved enough to overtake the Cowboys in the NFC East let alone become one of the top five teams in the NFL. It looks as though the Eagles aren't "going for it" this season, and that says something.

If the Eagles had made a big free agent signing (such as Julius Peppers), I'd say yea, keep McNabb for one more year and see what he can do with this team. Make the 2010/11 season his last chance with the Eagles to win a Super Bowl. But they didn't go that route.

The Eagles dumped a significant amount of salary this winter (possibly in preparation for the questions surrounding the salary cap and uncertainty of upcoming seasons) and didn't land that big free agent that many fans hoped they would. Their biggest addition this off season may have been Darryl Tapp. Who? Yea, exactly.

It seems like the Eagles may be on their way to a "rebuilding year" (although they would never call it that). And if that's the case, if Philadelphia doesn't plan on competing for a Super Bowl this year, then they should TRADE McNABB.

The Eagles have a large core of young offensive talent in Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Brent Celek. If they want this team to be competitive for years to come, they should allow all of the young players, Kevin Kolb included, to grow together. If the Eagles are really looking towards the future and want this team to be successful, they need to let Kolb run the offense and mature as an NFL quarterback.

In the beginning when all these trade rumors first appeared, I said to allow McNabb to have one more chance with this team, but that is not the direction in which the team is heading. They are getting younger and faster, and Donovan McNabb doesn't fit into that equation.

Crush Time

If the trade deadline were tomorrow, the Flyers would be buying and selling and trading and waiving faster than a stock broker at Christmas time.

But alas it isn't. And the Flyers are stuck with the players they have now. They have a total of eight games left to right a ship that is severely off course and headed for what looks like a first round exit (or possibly not making the playoffs at all).

If they Flyers want to have any chance of winning even one game this postseason they need to find their scoring touch and their starting goalie. Brian Boucher looked absolutely atrocious in last night's game against the Wild. He let in a very weak goal to make the score 3-2 early in the third and let in another softie to clinch the win for Minnesota in overtime. Maybe it's time to try Johan Backlund in net. The Flyers have lost four straight and six out of their last seven. Something needs to be done and putting Backlund in net against the Pens on Saturday may be the answer.

The Flyers have not been scoring with any regularity or consistency lately and it is another reason why they can't seem to buy themselves a win. Simon Gagne has been on fire lately, but the rest of the team has gone flat cold. Scott Hartnell is hurting the team more than he is helping them, and I won't even begin to discuss the great young defenseman formerly known as Braydon Coburn.

Coach Peter Laviolette looks like he has tried everything in his power to get this team back on track. He has called early game timeouts and he has rotated the line combinations again and again, but it's not up to him anymore. It needs to be the players who take matters into their own hands and change the way the team is playing.

We saw what happened last season when the Flyers stumbled into the playoffs--it didn't end well. In hockey, a team has a better chance of succeeding in the postseason if they're playing well going in (See the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins). If Philadelphia doesn't string a few wins together before the end of the regular season, their dreams of having an Orange Crush Wachovia Center may be, well, crushed.

The Fantasy of Major League Baseball

Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard. Straight up. Sounds like the kind of blockbuster deal that's made during the second week of the fantasy baseball season or during the franchise mode in MLB 2K10. A report on ESPN had rumors swirling that the Phillies and Cardinals were shopping the idea of swapping the two former (and current) NL MVPs.

The statistics of the two superstars are both astounding. Pujols in 2009--.327 AVG, 47 HR, 135 RBI (64 SO and the league MVP). Howard in 2009--.279 AVG, 45 HR, 141 RBI (186 SO). Home runs are about the same, RBIs are about the same, but it's the strikeouts and batting average that stand out. Howard nearly tripled Pujols' strikeout total and had a .041 lower batting average. Pujols is the best position player in the game right now and is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Statistically speaking, this deal doesn't make sense.

One possible reason that the Cardinals may trade Pujols is the fact that he will be a free agent in 2011 and the Cards may not be able to afford him. People may be forgetting that Ryan Howard is due to be a free agent in 2011 as well and will command top dollar too. Now, Howard may not be looking for (or deserving of) a record-breaking contract like the one Pujols is expected to receive, but he certainly won't come cheap. If the Cardinals were looking for a cheap replacement for Pujols (which doesn't exist in any capacity, cheap or not) they're not going to find it in Howard.

Now, I love Ryan Howard. He is a great player and I'm proud to have him on my team, but if I were offered Albert Pujols, I would do it in a heartbeat, I'd be stupid not to. Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is vehemently denying the reports, but he did the same thing with the speculation that he was looking at acquiring Roy Halladay, so I'm taking his denials with a grain of salt.

If this deal were to happen it would be, without question, the biggest deal in baseball history. But this isn't ESPN's fantasy baseball and even if it were, a smart fantasy owner would want slightly more for Fat Albert.

Flyers Trade Deadline Analysis

The 2010 NHL trade deadline came and went without the Flyers making a single move. A day or so before the deadline they did waive Riley Cote and Danny Syvret. So, I guess that does constitute a roster move, but not a trade.

The Flyers were simply too handcuffed by their lack of draft picks and lack of cap room, but more so by not having many picks. The Flyers may have have gotten Raffi Torres had they had the picks and the same goes for Dan Hamhuis. Both of whom would have made a nice depth addition to this team. The Flyers also looked to try to add Tomas Vokoun and Tomas Kaberle. The Panthers wanted Jeff Carter in exchange for Vokoun (thanks, but no thanks), and Kaberle makes $4.25 mil., a little too steep considering the Flyers' cap troubles.

With Michael Leighton stumbling last night, it looked as if the Flyers made the wrong decision in not obtaining a goalie. But the ones who were available--Tomas Vokoun, Marty Biron (been there, done that), Dwayne Roloson (ranked 32nd and 24th in the league in GAA and SV% respectively), and others--hadn't been playing nearly as well or as consistently as Leighton has been since he's gotten to Philadelphia (13-3-1 this season with a 2.33 GAA and a .933 SV% with the Flyers).

Would I have liked for the Flyers to have made a move...yea. Would the Flyers be better off had they made even a small a move...possibly. It's just hard for Paul Holmgren to argue against a five game win streak (before Wednesday's loss to Florida) and an 18-7-1 record since Dec. 23. It's way too soon to know if Holmgren's decision to stand pat will work out. I guess we'll find out come April and May.

stats c/o NHL.com and nhlnumbers.com

Shutout the Shootout

Get rid of the shootout. There it is, I'm just going to put it out there and say it. The NHL shootout flat out sucks. It's fun during the skills competition, but it's no way to end an NHL hockey game. Teams battle for 60 minutes of regulation and the game is ended by a one-on-one? One shooter, one goalie? The culmination of all the checking, power plays, penalty kills, fights, great saves, great shots, near misses, and odd man rushes ends with two players? There's so much that goes into a hockey game and to end it that way is no way to do it. You don't see an ending like this in any other major sport. Baseball doesn't end with a one-on-one, just the pitcher and the hitter, one pitch, try to get a hit. No. Basketball doesn't end with a game of one-on-one. No. Football doesn't end with a one-on-one, one halfback, one linebacker, tackle the guy with the ball before he scores. No. So why does hockey do it? It's gimmick to try to get fans, and it diminishes the game.

A game should end with one 20 minute overtime, 4-on-4. Overtime playoff hockey is the most exciting thing in all of professional sports. A goal could happen at any moment. Why not bring a piece of that into the regular season? If the game is still tied after the 20 minutes, the game ends in a tie, each team gets one point. "A game can't end in a tie! It's not right! There has to be a winner and a loser!" No, there doesn't. Hockey lasted for decades with the tie and people freak out at the mentioning of a tie when I bring it up. Each team fought as hard as it possibly could and the teams were matched up so evenly that no team was better. That's exciting hockey.

I know a lot of people think that losing the shootout may lose the NHL fans, well then so be it. If you only like the NHL for the shootout, you don't like the NHL at all. 4-on-4 overtime is as fast paced and exciting as it gets and if you can't appreciate the skill in a 4-on-4 overtime, there's something wrong with you.

Consistently Inconsistent

The 2009/2010 Flyers season has been the epitome of a roller coaster thus far. Just look at these stats.
Starting at the beginning of the season...

10/2-10/6--> 3-0-0
10/8-10/16--> 0-2-1
10/22-11/18-->9-3-0
11/20-12/21-->3-13-1
12/23-1/12--> 9-1-1
1/14-1/28--> 3-4-0
1/30-2/1--> 2-0-0
2/3-2/6--> 0-2-0

The Flyers are undoubtedly the streakiest team in the NHL. You never know what you're going to get on any particular night. They may score 7 goals in one game against an elite goaltender, then score 1 goal in two games against two rookie goalies (one playing for the worst team in hockey). They need to start playing (particularly scoring) with some consistently if they want to make the playoffs, let alone advance in them.

Maybe a trade is the thing to solve this problem. Bringing in new and fresh players sometimes changes the way a team competes on a nightly basis. But there isn't a lot of cap room for Paul Holmgren to make a trade though (the lack of cap room is partially his fault by the way). The Flyers are taking a 1.5 mil. cap hit on a player who isn't even in the organization (Randy Jones). Simon Gagne is getting payed 5.25 mil. this season and has only scored 6 goals (Bobby Clarke contract).

The trade of OKT and a 5th for Ville Lieno does little to nothing to help improve this team. It remains to be seen if Holmgren can/will make a significant trade before the March 3rd deadline. All the Flyers can do until then is survive the back-to-backs with the Devils and the Canadiens and hope they can win with more consistency after the Olympic break.